Areas in Clare, Mayo Face Risk of Losing GPs, New Research Shows

A wave of GP retirements could cause a risk of black spots for care in multiple areas around the country, new research has found. A paper on GP supply and demand to be published on Monday pinpoints areas with the highest proportion of GPs 'at risk of retirement with no viable replacement'. These are in east Clare, east Mayo, Inishowen, and around Wexford and Westmeath. Some 132 GPs fall into this category, which would represent tens of thousands of patients.

The paper, to be published by Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, finds there is a 'reasonable level of coverage' currently but warns there are 'some areas with clear capacity constraints arising' where the number of GPs has not expanded to meet demographic pressures – especially in rapidly growing or ageing areas. It also warns that 'inadequate succession planning for retirement may be a risk to the stable supply of GP services in some areas'.

The paper indicates sufficient numbers of GPs are being trained to replenish numbers retiring, and the Health Service Executive has been effective at providing support where risks stemming from retirements arise. However, it suggests that some GPs could be deferring retirement in areas where services are stretched, and that areas with already-low GP numbers 'face a risk of further destabilisation arising from upcoming retirements with no evident replacement in place'.

Practices with a single GP make up half of services deemed to be 'at risk' from this factor, making them an 'obvious target' for facilitating and incentivising succession planning. Single-GP practices are more concentrated in west Galway, Mayo, west Donegal, and areas around Clare, east Limerick, Tipperary, Wexford, and Leitrim.

The report's authors point out that in Mayo, Clare, Wexford, Tipperary, and Leitrim there is also a high proportion of GPs at risk of retirement and a high proportion of 'under pressure' GPs. It says that in Leitrim, west Galway, and north Mayo there has been high population growth – meaning 'not only is there a risk of GP workforce decreasing in the coming years, there is likely to also be high and growing service usage'. If these issues arise, 'there will be areas lacking appropriate coverage of general practice services'.

Ms. Carroll MacNeill said: 'We know there are challenges, and this report points out the problems and offers ideas on how to fix them so that GP services stay accessible.' In places without enough GPs or with capacity constraints, the Government will work to place healthcare workers matched with local requirements, she said. The research will play into a strategic review of general practice due to be published this year.

The paper also looked at areas where more GPs are under pressure from larger patient lists relative to the rest of the country. 'Areas that show a high proportion of under-pressure GPs are areas around Inishowen, west Donegal, east Mayo, east Clare, central Wexford, east Westmeath, and west Waterford,' it finds – although it notes that in some of these areas, neighbouring regions have greater capacity meaning people may be able to travel for care. However, this in and of itself may prove problematic, with older age cohorts finding it difficult to travel to visit a GP, while it may be more time-consuming for a doctor to make a home call.