Is Bitcoin's Bullish Trend at Risk? Key Signals to Watch

Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio bounced off its 365-day SMA, indicating potential trend continuation if the support holds. The price structure looks bullish, but concerns arise from on-chain weakness and increasing sentiment risk.

Bitcoin BTC has maintained its position above the 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the MVRV Ratio, a historically significant mid-cycle anchor. The recent rebound, observed twelve days ago, is now a key indicator for bullish momentum.

With BTC above $108K, sustained confidence is signaled as long as the ‘MVRV > SMA365’ condition persists. However, actual on-chain activity is crucial to support this conviction, as price alone may not sustain the momentum.

Investors are balancing profits and potential gains. Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) increased by 2.27%, with participants netting $293 million in profits. This profit-taking behavior is common in mid-cycle phases, indicating gradual gains without disrupting the broader uptrend.

Despite lower Transaction Count and Network Growth figures, suggesting reduced activity and new participants, the absence of significant sell-offs indicates continued bullish expectations. The disconnect between adoption and valuation trends is evident in the current price stability.

Social Dominance for BTC surged to 34.92%, the highest in 2025, reflecting increased market attention and speculative interest. However, such spikes have previously coincided with local tops, emphasizing the importance of on-chain strength alongside market hype.

At present, BTC remains above its 9-day and 21-day EMAs, with RSI around 55, indicating mild bullish momentum. Breaking above $110K and RSI surpassing 60 are crucial for attracting new buyers and potential breakout.

Despite weaker on-chain activity, key structural indicators like the MVRV Ratio, EMAs, and NRPL gains suggest that bullish sentiment persists. However, declining Transaction Count and rising Social Dominance hint at underlying fragility.

Bitcoin's bullish outlook is not guaranteed, but a revival in volume and on-chain participation could lead to further upward movement. Until then, a cautious approach is advised.