Tasmania Heading for Another Hung Parliament in Upcoming Election
A recent YouGov poll indicates Tasmania is likely to have another hung parliament, with Labor leader Dean Winter preferred by 55% of voters for a minority government. The poll shows a close race between the major parties, with a potentially larger crossbench. Analysts suggest the outcome could lead to significant changes in the state's political landscape.
The final public poll of the Tasmanian election campaign indicates another hung parliament with a potentially larger crossbench. YouGov's poll of 931 voters from July 7 to 18 shows Labor losing support while the Liberals remain steady. The first preference results are 31% for Liberals, 30% for Labor, 20% for independents, 16% for Greens, and 2% for Nationals. Compared to the July 1 poll, Labor lost 4%, while Liberals and Greens stayed the same and independents gained 2%.
In a forced choice question, 55% prefer Labor leader Dean Winter as premier in a minority government, while 45% prefer Premier Jeremy Rockliff. The poll predicts a minority government with dissatisfaction towards both leaders, favoring a larger crossbench. Polling analyst Kevin Bonham sees the poll as not disastrous for Labor, suggesting potential seat changes for both major parties and a strong chance for the Greens.
Both Liberals and Labor rule out formal agreements with the Greens but may govern without a deal. The YouGov poll also shows 41% support for the Liberals' TasInsure, aiming to address high premiums. Other polls by DemosAU and EMRS present varying results, with EMRS indicating a Liberal lead in the final weeks of the campaign.
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