Jurassic World Rebirth Set for $260M Global Box Office Debut

It’s Jurassic World Rebirth all the time, until DC Studios/Warner Bros’ Superman opens next week, and the rumbling starts offshore today in Hong Kong and tomorrow in the U.S., UK, China, Germany, Korea, Spain and Italy; the overall global outlook by Sunday being $260M on the high end.

Broken out we’re seeing $130M+ abroad with the dinos dropping into Australia, Brazil, Mexico and the Netherlands on Thursday. On Friday, they head to France and India, among others. In total, a big footprint of 82 markets overseas with Japan joining in August.

Universal theatrical release will hit stateside tomorrow (not tonight) at 4,000 theaters before upping to 4,300 by Friday. The studio doesn’t really believe in previews on discount Tuesday and has generally launched hard on Wednesday. The five-day forecast is $120M-$130M. Universal is taking a majority of the PLF screens away from Apple Original Films and Warner Bros’ F1 which will hold onto its Imax gas for what’s hoped to be a $28M+ second 3-day or better.

We always have to asterisk the fact that moviegoing can ratchet down due to barbeques, beach, swimming pool and fireworks on the July 4th holiday. If there’s heat on a title, then that theory is thrown out the window, however, distributors would love it if Independence Day didn’t fall on a Friday. Uni has owned the July 4th stretch for the most part post Covid except for 2023 when Disney had Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Post Covid Independence Day No. 1 opening wins for Uni include 2021’s F9 ($70M 3-day), 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru ($123M 4-day) and last year’s Despicable Me 4 ($122.6M 5-day).

While Universal restarted the Steven Spielberg-born franchise in 2015 with Jurassic World under the directing watch of Colin Trevorrow with new cast members Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard, that movie is still the biggest opening in the 32-year old franchise at $525.5M worldwide (unadjusted for inflation) and $208.8M domestic, the previous movie, 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion, despite grossing $1 billion including $157M from China, seemed to have run its course story-wise. Rotten Tomatoes critics’ rating fell to its lowest across the six-picture franchise at 29%. Despite an A- CinemaScore (the lowest ever for a Jurassic movie was the Joe Johnston-directed 2001 Jurassic Park III with a B-), it was decided then an injection of Viagra and Testosterone was needed for these pre-historic beasts, enter returning scribe David Koepp who adapted the first two Michael Crichton penned novels, Jurassic Park and The Lost World: Jurassic Park, for the big screen (the author co-wrote the first 1993 movie with Koepp). Also, let’s not forget a director who knows something about large lizards and genre, Gareth Edwards, who helmed the first Legendary Monsterverse title, 2014’s Godzilla, which did just over a half billion worldwide, and the prequel, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which did $1.05 billion.

Koepp had a way in with a story set five years after Jurassic World Dominion. The Earth’s atmosphere has become inhospitable to dinosaurs, hence they are now confined to rainforest areas around the Equator. The three most colossal creatures across land, sea and air within that tropical biosphere hold, in their DNA, the key to a drug that will bring miraculous life-saving benefits to humankind. Scarlett Johansson, a gun for hire (and not any girl with a gun, hello, it’s Black Widow herself, Johansson!), leads a bio-research team who has their greedy eye on making that new drug. Two-time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali plays the Johansson’s character’s friend with the boat, Rupert Friend is the bad guy, Jonathan Bailey plays a doctor with a sense of decency and they’re all in the way of creatures with big claws with a shipwrecked family in town (played by Manuel Garcia-Rulfo, Luna Blaise, David Iacono and Audrina Miranda as the Delgado family).

What are audiences thinking about this reboot? On U.S. tracking, First Choice is high with men over 25, followed by women over 25. Overall first choice is close to where 2018’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was (the fourth film in the series), that pic directed by J.A. Bayona opening to a domestic 3-day of $148M, but behind 2022’s Dominion, which debuted to $145M stateside over Friday-Sunday. Despite the heavy over-25 interest,

Foreign comps to consider include the previous three entries in the franchise, even though this is a new take on the series. It’s also a real thing that heatwaves in Europe are a factor right now. Still, we expect this one to perform.

Each of the most recent trio of movies ultimately went on to gross over $1B-plus globally, led by 2015’s huge franchise return, Jurassic World with $1.67 billion, still the tenth highest grossing movie ever. China contributed a sizable chunk to each of those three films, and while Rebirth leads presales through Sunday in that market, times have changed meaning it’s a wait-and-see how it delivers. In what’s become a rarer move for studios, Universal held a premiere in Shanghai on Sunday with Johansson, Friend, Bailey and Edwards in attendance.

Along with China, the recent Jurassics have performed the best in a mix of Mexico, the UK, France, Germany, Australia, Korea and Japan (again, the latter not going this weekend).

Universal unveiled extended footage for exhibitors at CineEurope in Barcelona last month, and it was roundly one of the most positively talked about sneak peeks.

Among other travel for the Jurassic World Rebirth crew, there was a world premiere in London on June 17, followed by Berlin the next day. A Grand Rex red carpet was held in Paris on June 22 with Edwards and score composer Alexandre Desplat.