Philippine Economy Expected to Lead ASEAN in 2025

Growth of the Philippine economy is expected to reach 5.4 percent in 2025, despite the impact of US tariff policies. HSBC ASEAN economist Aris Dacanay mentioned that the Philippines has limited exposure to US markets compared to other countries, which will help mitigate the effects of the tariffs. The first quarter of this year saw a growth rate of 5.4 percent, slightly lower than the previous year's 5.9 percent. However, the full-year growth forecast for this year remains at 5.4 percent.

Dacanay noted that the US tariff policies pose a risk to domestic growth by creating uncertainties among investors, affecting foreign direct investments, and reducing imports from the US. Nevertheless, factors such as the central bank's easing rate cycle, strong domestic consumption, improved credit growth, capital imports, and lower inflation are expected to support the economy. The Philippines is projected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN in 2025.

While a slowdown is possible, drivers like consumption, investments, service exports, and policy rate decisions by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas are anticipated to boost growth to 5.6 percent in 2026. Despite the global economic slowdown expected in the second half of 2025, the Philippine economy is predicted to continue its upward trajectory.

ASEAN consists of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, in addition to the Philippines.

According to the source: Philippine News Agency.