Asteroid Threatens Satellites and Promises Meteor Shower - Get the Facts

A potential asteroid strike on the moon calculated by NASA could also pose a significant risk to satellites orbiting Earth, according to new research. Scheduled for a possible collision on December 22, 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4's diameter is equivalent to a 10-story building and would cause a new crater on the moon, ejecting material into space that could threaten the entire satellite fleet orbiting Earth. It could also cause a brief but spectacular meteor shower visible from Earth.

Key Facts

Dubbed a “city killer” when it was initially thought to be heading towards Earth, asteroid 2024 YR4 is 174-220 feet (53-67 meters) in diameter and could impact the moon on December 22, 2032. In that scenario, it would release energy equivalent to 6.5 megatons of TNT, forming a crater roughly one kilometer in diameter. According to a new paper published on June 12, up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material could be blasted into space, with debris potentially heading toward Earth. Satellites in low Earth orbit will be at risk, with hundreds or even thousands of minor impacts across fleets like SpaceX's Starlink. Tiny meteoroids are constantly striking satellites, and the increase in tiny meteoroids could rapidly age the satellite fleet. Debris could linger in Earth's orbit for months to years, creating ongoing threats to long-duration missions.

Chances Of A Lunar Impact

There is currently a 4.3% chance of YR4 striking the moon, according to calculations based on observations by the James Webb Space Telescope. It's predicted to strike the Southern Hemisphere of the moon's near-side. The authors recommend a planetary defense mission to change the orbit of YR4.

Danger On The Moon

An asteroid strike would cause ejecta to impact a wide area of the lunar surface, potentially threatening astronauts or a potential lunar base. Spacecraft operating on the moon would also be in danger.

YR4’s ‘Spectacular’ Meteor Shower

About 10% of the ejecta produced by the asteroid striking the moon would be propelled into space, potentially causing a meteor shower that could last a few days and be spectacular. Any YR4 meteor shower would come just eight days after the peak of the Geminids.

Further Reading

Forbes: NASA’s Webb Telescope To Study Asteroid 2024 YR4 As Impact Risk Rises